EU aims to tackle the imminent kerosene shortage

Since 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States of America have been at war with Iran, one of the most geopolitically significant countries in the Middle East. As a result of the conflict, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, bringing maritime traffic between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to a complete halt. Although negotiations have taken place in recent weeks regarding the reopening of the strait, no lasting agreement has yet been reached.

The Strait of Hormuz is important as the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Iran — are among the largest oil exporters in the world. Before the conflict, an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil were transported through the strait every day. Nearly 25% of all crude oil transported by sea passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while around 20% of global natural gas shipments pass through it. The importance of the strait is also shown by the fact that no real land-based alternative has been developed, which could transport the above-mentioned volumes. The price shock caused by the reduction in oil supply is expected to reach Europe in the near future, and the first signs are already visible. For example, Lufthansa has cancelled nearly 20,000 flights due to rising prices.

The tightening of supply may also affect Hungary quite seriously, as Hungary relies on imported fuel even in peacetime, and a significant part of this is believed to come from the Gulf countries. The situation is further complicated by the fact that, following the accident at the Százhalombatta oil refinery last year, the refinery is still operating at a reduced capacity.

The EU also aims to provide a response to the problem. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen told Reuters that Member States may be required to build up kerosene reserves and, if necessary, share them with each other. According to experts, if the EU cannot replace more than half of its Middle Eastern imports from other sources, a kerosene shortage may already develop by the beginning of the summer. This would likely be reflected in higher ticket prices, as well as in the rising prices of goods and products transported by air.